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2019 NCAA Bracket Challenge


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#1 David Hatfield

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 12:03 AM

Welcome to the 2019 NCAA basketball bracket challenge!!  We will again be using ESPN.

Directions to join the group:
 

  • Go to this link: http://fantasy.espn....racket/2019/en/
  • Click on [Log In] (in the upper right-hand corner) to create an account, if you haven't already, and to login.  (After signing up, a popup asks you to enter your preferred ESPN name.  Since this is global, you may need to get creative to find a unique name.)  Then..
  • Click on [Create a Bracket Now!] to make your picks: http://fantasy.espn....t/2019/en/entry.  (You need to make your picks before you can join our group.)  Next..
  • Click on [Create or Join a Group] to join our group: http://fantasy.espn....19/en/groupfind.  In the SEARCH GROUPS field enter "Team Red Lizard" and click [Search Groups] button.  Click on the Team Red Lizard group name, and then click on [Join Group] (a little below the Team Red Lizard logo) or [Rejoin], if you participated last year.  Use the Group Password: running.
  • To edit your name as it appears in our group (i.e. the name of your bracket), use the My Bracket drop down menu to select you bracket.  Then click on the gear icon.

 

Your picks need to be made before tip-off Thursday morning, March 21st.  The scoring is similar to previous years.

 

Any questions, problems...?

 
bracket2019.jpg

Edited by David Hatfield, 17 March 2019 - 08:49 PM.

I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#2 David Hatfield

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 09:01 PM

Okay, our group is open and ready for business.  Let me know if you have any problems creating a bracket or joining our group.  (If you're looking for advice on picks.., go with Gonzaga vs. Virginia in the final.  This year they're not going to choke.  Really!)

 

Villanova is seeded lower than Marquette!  Are you kidding me?  (Sorry, no offense, SusanB).  Villanova has a better record, won the conference title in the regular season and in the conference tournament, presumably will be ranked higher in tomorrow's polls, and is the reigning NCAA champion (not that that should matter in this year's seedings).  Gots to love this system.  As usually, I better at least beat the "dummy" bracket.


I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#3 andicamp

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 08:28 AM

I'm in!


2010 mileage: 2929
2009 mileage: 2875
2008 mileage: 2436.5
2007 mileage: 2254.5
2010 prs/races: 1/7
2009 prs/races: 15/18
2008 prs/races: 12/17
2007 prs/races: 9/11

#4 David Hatfield

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 04:29 PM

Excellent.., but Andi, I don't see you in the TRL group.

 

So far we have: brewdad, dudeman, hansen, and hatfield.


I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#5 Rick Lovett

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 02:50 AM

Im in.

#6 andicamp

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 07:45 AM

Whoa, thank you for pointing that out! You have to click Join Group twice, apparently. 


2010 mileage: 2929
2009 mileage: 2875
2008 mileage: 2436.5
2007 mileage: 2254.5
2010 prs/races: 1/7
2009 prs/races: 15/18
2008 prs/races: 12/17
2007 prs/races: 9/11

#7 andicamp

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Posted 22 March 2019 - 06:50 PM

Hey, I'm winning!! I'm winning!!!!

 

(I'm certain it won't last long, so I have to hurry up and gloat!)


2010 mileage: 2929
2009 mileage: 2875
2008 mileage: 2436.5
2007 mileage: 2254.5
2010 prs/races: 1/7
2009 prs/races: 15/18
2008 prs/races: 12/17
2007 prs/races: 9/11

#8 Rick Lovett

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Posted 22 March 2019 - 08:02 PM

This is a first for me: the first time I didn't sufficiently believe in the Big Ten, the conference in which I went to undergrad, got my Ph.D., and taught.

I.e., I'd be tied for first if I'd gone with my heart. Not that I'm complaining. I was cheering for the ones I'd predicted against, all the way along.

P.S., I am happy to have predicted Liberty to win on an upset. My theory had nothing to do with hoops, per se. I just figured that they might have something to prove to those of us who don't like their politics. I wasn't sure it was enough to make up for the difference in seed, but I risked it.

But I'm so happy at seeing two Big Ten teams I predicted to lose actually win, that I don't care if they cost me 20 points!

#9 David Hatfield

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Posted 23 March 2019 - 05:04 AM

Yes, and the one Big Ten loss was at the hands of the Ducks, who are on a tear.

 

Congratulations, team!  After one round, and more than half of the total tournament games, not one of us is loosing to "dummy", the NCAA selection committee.

 

Results so far seem madder than most years, and upset-happy andicamp leads the way.  (Impressively, nine people in the whole ESPN pool are still perfect.)

 

And as far as odds of winning (assuming random results going forward), it's looking grim for our reigning champion, brewdad, who lost three of his Sweet 16 picks, and trails the pack:

 

andicamp 35%

behansen 15%

scroogemcduck 13%

dudeman 13%

hatfield 10%

ralovett 9%

carreh 7%

brewdad 5%


I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#10 David Hatfield

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Posted 24 March 2019 - 09:03 PM

Two rounds in the books and we're all still alive.  However, brewdad heads into the Sweet Sixteen with a must-win for Tennessee over Purdue.  Hatfield is currently in the lead, but andicamp still leads the odds race:

 

andicamp 33%

hatfield 29%

dudeman 16%

behansen 16%

scroogemcduck 9%

ralovett 8%

carreh 5%

brewdad 1%

 

Curiously carreh, who is second in the current standings, has low odds of winning.  But that's because she and hatfield share almost identical picks going forward, except for in the potential Duke vs. Gonzaga rematch.


I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#11 Rick Lovett

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Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:24 PM

I might add that we are pretty much all well above average in ESPN's overall group. That's normal, but fun.

Me, I needed a total of 3 points in two games to go from "oh-oh" to close to the top (if not there). At least I picked the right "almost" upsets.

That said, this was a tough year, because Dummy looked better than average, and what's the point in duplicating Dummy?

#12 David Hatfield

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 05:26 PM

I think Dummy has changed this year.  I say that, because my picks (done by formula) are embarrassing close to Dummy's picks.  In past years my formula has picked significantly more "upsets".  I think the selection committee used to use the RPI ranking system when they created the brackets.  RPI weights strength of schedule too much, in my opinion, and tends to favor weak teams from major conferences over strong teams from other conferences.  So I'd guess they scrapped RPI.  Of course I could always look it up online, but what would be the fun in that?  


I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#13 David Hatfield

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Posted 29 March 2019 - 01:56 AM

After day 1 of the Sweet Sixteen, brewdad's glimmer of hope has been extinguished.  And andicamp's chances took a blow, loosing her pick for champion, Tennessee.

 

dudeman and behansen have joined hatfield on top of the leaderboard.  And the random odds of victory* are:

 

hatfield 54%

dudeman 31%

behansen 19%

andicamp 12%

scroogemcduck 9%

ralovett 8%

carreh 5%

 

Going into day 2 of the Sweet Sixteen, three more of us have must-win contests: carreh (Duke over Virginia Tech) and ralovett and scroogemcduck (Michigan State over LSU).

 

*In the event of a tie, the score of the champion game is used as the tiebreaker.


I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#14 David Hatfield

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Posted 29 March 2019 - 08:42 PM

carreh, ralovett, and scroogemcduck stave off elimination, but andicamp made an unceremonious exit during the day.

 

behansen, dudeman, and hatfield stay knotted at the top, but dudeman's chances took a hit when North Carolina went down to Auburn.

 

Updated chances are:

 

hatfield 44%

behansen 22%

dudeman 22%

scroogemcduck 22%

carreh 11%

ralovett 9%

 

Tomorrow carreh gets a free shot at behansen and will knock him out if Gonzaga beats Texas Tech.  And looking ahead to Sunday, there's a big elimination game between Duke (carreh) and Michigan State (ralovett and scroogemcduck).


Edited by David Hatfield, 29 March 2019 - 10:32 PM.

I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.

#15 David Hatfield

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Posted 30 March 2019 - 07:21 PM

Doh!  I guess this isn't Gonzaga's year.  scroogemcduck went down with Purdue, and we're down to five.

 

behansen, dudeman, and hatfield remain tied at top.  And the odds of winning are:

 

hatfield 50%

behansen 37.5%

dudeman 31.25%

ralovett 25%

carreh 12.5%

 

Looks like a decent chance of tie, in which case score of the championship game is the tiebreaker.

 

Tomorrow it's do or die for carreh (Duke) vs ralovett (Michigan State).


I could dig deeper..., but then I'd be further in a hole.




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